Gold and Silver Soar to Expectations
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In the dynamic landscape of global commodities trading, gold and silver players have exhibited unwavering bullish sentiments this weekDespite fluctuations in the market and occasional enticing opportunities to short-sell, the bullish outlook has remained steadfastOn Thursday, insights suggested that gold could rally to a high of 2665, while silver might reach 30. As it turned out, gold peaked at 2660 and silver at 29.6, demonstrating the expected uptick in gold prices, which surged from 2596 to nearly 2660 – an impressive rise of around 65 dollarsThis upward momentum seems far from done, with the potential for continued gains over the coming trading daysOn the silver front, there's a notable increase, yet its growth appears more confined, lingering around the 28.7 mark, under pressure from resistance beneath the critical 30 thresholdAs long as this range remains intact, we are likely witnessing a low-level adjusting fluctuation.
Meanwhile, in the complex world of crude oil trading, shifts in international dynamics have led to a persistent bullish sentiment that has already accomplished its second target of 73 dwellings
Analysts now set their sights on the next target of 75. In the futures market, various commodities have reported upward momentum that meets expectationsFor instance, Shanghai gold has ascended to 631, while Rongtong gold reached 626, and Shanghai silver touched 7700. As the market displays cyclical behavior, it may be prudent to consider tentative short positions at key levels, monitoring for potential weakening trends.
From an economic data point of view, Thursday provided affirmation that the American job market remains robustThe number of new unemployment claims fell to an eight-month low last week, signaling a reduction in layoffs anticipated for the end of 2024. A hopeful US policy backdrop suggests a potential economic stimulus that may drive pressure on inflation, curbing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and subsequently lending support to the dollar
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An important metric upcoming from the United States is the December ISM manufacturing PMI, with market expectations at 48.4%, a figure unchanged from the previous readingA PMI below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, so any results that either align with or fall short of this expectation could lean in favor of gold prices.
The dollar has indeed broken through previous resistance levels, climbing from 108.2 to approximately 109.5. As the currency continues its bullish trend for over two months, it’s essential to watch for its continued riseInterestingly, despite the dollar’s strength, gold has surprisingly resisted a significant pullbackThere have been forecasts suggesting that January might bring about notable declines in gold prices, but vigilance is required; prior trends indicate a strong inclination towards bullish gold sentiment
Consequently, throughout this week, the recommendation has leaned bullish on gold, navigating through various temptations to capitalize on downward movementsSpecifically, on Thursday, it was highlighted that gold might ascend to 2640 and even 2665, with current peaks nearly reflecting these targets at 2662, aligning closely with projections.
At present, gold sustains its status beneath significant highs; however, there's an essential consideration worth mentioning regarding Thursday's unidirectional ascentPredictions suggest that Friday could present challenges in continuing that bullish trajectoryThere’s a strong possibility for gold to witness profit-taking from prior bullish trends, introducing potential adjustmentsTechnically speaking, the daily levels appear stable; maintaining the bullish sentiment could propel prices towards 2700. Yet, there's a contradiction, as patterns in the H4 timeframe indicate a potential retreat
The strength of this current movement remains to be clarified, with possible support seen at 2638 if the push weakens and 2625 should the declines continueThus, consolidating below 2650 might imply weakening strength, while dropping under 2638 would confirm a fluctuating marketA breach of 2625 signifies a potential trend reversalTherefore, for today’s trading strategy, it may prove beneficial to consider short positions within the range of 2668/2665 while assessing for any subsequent pullback as the buying pressure potentially diminishes on Friday.
Turning to the silver market, this week has also presented opportunities with calls to buy near the 29 level for potential upward movementAfter several trading sessions, silver indeed reached a high of 29.6. Although the magnitude of this increase hasn’t been monumental, it has largely aligned with the forecasts made
Closing near 29.6, this price represents a mid-point in a phase of upward movementIt may be wise to consider locking in profits today by exiting long positions, rather than stubbornly waiting for the 30 target, especially given the present uncertain market dynamics that could lead to a drop back to 29. Consequently, today’s advice for silver would center on securing profits and adopting a neutral, observational stance.
Crude oil has maintained a bullish outlook for two months, with the recent uptrend achieving a second target at 73. As we look ahead, speculation is directed toward the third target of 75. Currently, crude oil peaking at 73.6 during the week and closing strongly reinforces this bullish sentiment, hovering around 73.3. In the face of such a trend, traders should merely observe which points are conducive to pursuing long positionsThough bullish indicators for crude oil are pronounced, the tangible engagement in trades remains elusive, leading to minimal captures of profit thus far