US Stocks End Year on a Low Note

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The final day of trading for U.Sstocks in 2024 witnessed a downward trend, marking a somewhat anticlimactic end to a year characterized by significant market fluctuationsThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has retreated to a critical support zone near its second upward trendline, showing some resilience in this turbulent environmentHowever, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have recently breached their initial resistance, and while the S&P flirts with its next upward support line, the Nasdaq still faces significant distance and potential for further declines, a reflection of broader market uncertainties.

In particular, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has exhibited a mixed short-term pattern, oscillating within a symmetrical triangle formationAfter encountering resistance at higher levels just a few days ago, it fell back down, now teetering near crucial supportIt remains to be seen whether this support can hold, as its failure could lead to a pronounced downward trend.

Adding to the complexity, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, composed of Chinese concept stocks, is undergoing a similar symmetrical triangle pattern but has recently plunged through its lower boundary

The inability to rebound swiftly raises concerns about further declines, with an essential support level lurking beneathIf breached, it may pave the way for even steeper losses in the near term.

The S&P Real Estate and Biotech Indexes have struggled against upward resistance recently and have now begun a downward trajectoryAlthough we have observed some rebounds within the downtrend, they have failed to appreciate enough to reclaim their descending trendlines, thus maintaining a bearish outlook.

Gold has faced challenges too, having previously enjoyed a protracted upward struggleNow, however, the precious metal is showing signs of fatigue as it attempts to halt a recent decline but has slipped below its support levelsIf it cannot reclaim this vital threshold, a larger downside could be in store.

Commodities, particularly silver, haven't fared much better amid this climate

Silver futures, which had seen significant upward movement, are now undergoing a price correction following less-than-expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, negatively impacting silver marketsWith recent fluctuations pushing silver through long-term support levels, its proximity to pivotal lower base support implies potential for a return to initial trading point if this support fails.

On the energy front, crude oil futures continue their lackluster performance, recently hitting multi-year lowsPresently, they have formed a trading range reminiscent of box consolidationRecent climbs to the box's resistance level present an opportunity: if this point is successfully breached, a reversal back to previous highs is plausible.

Turning to related updates, the U.Sstock market is closing out what has been a robust year with a slight dip, largely spurred by rising bond yields that have put downward pressure on stocks

Global indices echoed this sentiment, with major indexes down as bond yields increased again, leading to an unexciting close to what was otherwise a strong economic year.

In the early trading hours on Wall Street, positive momentum was quickly evaporated, specifically within the tech sector, which fell by 1.04%. The trend continued for stocks that had been leaders in the past year, such as Palantir Technologies, Vistra Corp, and Nvidia, all of which traded lower as investors sought to book profits after a strong close to 2024 – with the S&P 500 up 23.3% and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 28.7%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 29.51 points, or 0.07%, closing at 42,544.22; the S&P 500 declined by 25.31 points, or 0.43%, to 5,881.63; while the Nasdaq Composite saw a reduction of 175.99 points, or 0.90%, finishing at 19,310.79.

Despite a year of significant gains for the U.S

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stock market, with the S&P 500 index on track to achieve its fifth annual gain in six years at an approximate 53.19% increase over two years, this year's performance marks one of the strongest since 1997-1998.

Several factors drove the market's ascent throughout the year, including growth expectations fueled by artificial intelligence, forecasts of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and potential regulatory rollbacks from the government.

However, the recent forecasts from the Fed regarding the economy, coupled with growing concerns over tariff policies and inflation, have contributed to rising bond yieldsThe benchmark ten-year U.STreasury note recently reached a peak not seen since May 2, hitting 4.641%, creating headwinds for the equity market.

Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments, reflected on the situation, stating, “This week, we saw no Santa Claus rally, but investors did receive a gift of returns for 2024. The year ahead looks promising, driven by the explosive growth in AI, expected rate cuts, and a robust economy in the U.S.”

The MSCI All Country World Index dipped by 2.59 points, or 0.31%, to 841.24. Nevertheless, following a nearly 16% upswing in 2024, it is positioned to notch its second consecutive annual gain.

Across the Atlantic, the STOXX 600 Index saw a slight increase of 0.51% but still registered its largest quarterly percentage decline in over two years

By year-end 2024, it managed a 5.99% overall increase.

Trading volumes were muted Wednesday as markets looked towards the New Year holidayMajor exchanges in Germany, Italy, and Switzerland remained closed on Tuesday, while those in the U.K., Spain, and France operated on a half-day trading schedule.

In terms of bond yields, the U.S10-year Treasury noted a rise of 2.8 basis points to 4.573%, reversing preceding declines but still remaining above the pivotal 4.5% mark, perceived by many analysts as a concerning threshold for equitiesSince the year commenced, yields have surged by around 69 basis points, with an impressive increase of over 74 basis points in the fourth quarter alone.

Widening spreads throughout this year have bolstered the dollar's allureThe dollar index, which compares the greenback against a basket of major currencies, gained 6.6% this year, rising 7.3% in the fourth quarter for its most substantial quarterly gain since Q1 of 2015.

On Tuesday, the dollar index rose by 0.36% to 108.44 as the euro dipped 0.47% to $1.0358. The dollar posted a yearly decline of 6.1% against the euro, sliding 6.5% in the recent quarter

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